El Nino Threat, BMKG Warns of Crop Failure

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Head Dwikorita Karnawati warned of a threat of crop failure in rain-fed agricultural land due to El Nino and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena that resulted in drought.

"Local governments need to take immediate mitigation and prepare actions. Agricultural land is at risk of experiencing crop failure due to the lack of water supply during the plant growth phase," Karnawati noted in Jakarta on Friday, July 21, 2023.

The agency head remarked that El Nino and IOD phenomena have the potential to disrupt national food security.

However, in the fisheries sector, changes in sea temperature and current patterns during the El Nino and cooling Positive IOD phenomena usually have the potential to increase fish catches, she noted.

"Opportunities from this condition must be seized because it can support national food security," Karnawati emphasized.

She noted that the El Nino and Positive IOD phenomena reinforce one another, so this year's dry season can be even drier, with lower rainfall in the low to very low category.

If rainfall is usually around 20 mm per day, then in the dry season, this condition can occur once a month or even the case of no rain at all, she stated.

According to Karnawati, the peak of this dry season is forecast to occur in August to early September, with drier conditions than in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Based on BMKG's observation, the El Nino index in July had reached 1.01 at a moderate level, while the IOD has entered a positive index level.

Karnawati remarked that from June to July 10, El Nino is still at a weak level, so the impact has not been felt. However, after that period, El Nino and Positive IOD, with a global occurrence and long time period, could occur stronger at the same time for several months.

"In that time span, some parts of Indonesia were still showered with rain due to the dynamics of the regional atmosphere that had been brief. Therefore, the influence of El Nino had not been felt significantly," she explained.

ANTARA

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