Expert: National PSBB Needed for COVID-19 to End in September
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28 April 2020 23:54 WIB
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - An epidemiologist from the University of Indonesia (UI), Pandu Riono, expressed his doubts on the Singapore University of Technology and Design’s prediction that the COVID-19 pandemic will be resolved in Indonesia by September 7, 2020.
“If they can ascertain the date, it is too good to be true,” Pandu said when contacted by Tempo, Tuesday, April 28, 2020.
Results from the Singapore University of Technology and Design’s research, as received by Tempo, on Monday, April 27, indicated that 97 percent of COVID-19 cases globally will be resolved by May, 30, 2020. Furthermore, the figure is predicted to increase to 99 percent by June 17, with complete global recovery predicted for December 9, 2020.
In Indonesia, the research predicted that 97 percent of COVID-19 cases will be resolved by June 7, with 99 percent national recovery predicted to happen by June 24. However, the complete national recovery is predicted to occur only by September 7.
In response, Pandu acknowledges that the prediction may prove accurate. However, he emphasized that ensuring complete national recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic relies heavily on government intervention.
Although it is widely expected that a number of regions will have recovered from the COVID-19 outbreak by the time period, the situation may be very different if domestic migration remains unchecked.
Currently, a number of regions are enacting the Large Scale Social Restriction (PSBB) policy, geared to curb the COVID-19 outbreak on a regional scale. However, Pandu sees that the regional enactment is yet to be successful, instead opting for a national enactment of the PSBB.
“What we are suggesting is a national scale (PSBB), so that the impact can happen simultaneously across the nation,” he said.
The success of the Large Scale Social Restriction (PSBB) policy being enacted regionally has yet to be seen. But a number of indicators can be used to measure the success of regional PSBB, such as whether crowds continue to gather, whether congestion is still present, and the availability of handwashing facilities.
However, according to Pandu, the government does not have accurate data on all of the possible indicators. As a result, he considered that the regional enactment of PSBB lacks concrete management.
EGI ADYATAMA | Translator: DIO SUHENDA (Intern)