Professor's Mathematical Model Predicts End of COVID-19 Outbreak

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Laila Afifa

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  • Indonesia's Red Cross personnel wearing protective suits spray disinfectant on the road to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Jakarta, Indonesia, March 28, 2020. Twelve more people had died from the virus, bringing the death toll to 144, Achmad Yurianto, the official, said. Sixty-four people had recovered, he added. Yurianto added that the country had tested more than 6,500 people across the country. REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana

    Indonesia's Red Cross personnel wearing protective suits spray disinfectant on the road to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Jakarta, Indonesia, March 28, 2020. Twelve more people had died from the virus, bringing the death toll to 144, Achmad Yurianto, the official, said. Sixty-four people had recovered, he added. Yurianto added that the country had tested more than 6,500 people across the country. REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana

    TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Statistics experts and alumni of the Gadjah Mada University (UGM) predicted the end of the COVID-19 pandemic by using a mathematical probabilistic data-driven model. It shows the spread of coronavirus in Indonesia will stop by the end of May this year. 

    The experts also predict that COVID-19 cases could infect at least 6,174 people nationwide by the end of next month. 

    "Through rather effective government intervention, the total number of COVID-19 patients could total at 6,200 by the end of the pandemic,” said the person in charge of the project and UGM statistics professor Dedi Rosadi through a video conference today, April 1.

    The mathematical prediction was co-handled by fellow experts: Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science UGM alumni Heribertus Joko and PPRA National Resilience Institute (Lemhanas) alumni, who is also the author of ‘Worry Marketing’ Fidelis I Diponegoro.

    Dedi argues that a number of dynamic mathematical predictive models tend to be exaggerated in terms of coronavirus patients. He explains that their model predicts the maximum addition of daily COVID-19 patients in the second week of April 2020, on April 7-11. 

    “There will be 740 to 800 additional daily cases before it’s predicted to decrease,” said Dedi, adding that mid-May of 2020 would see a relatively small total addition of cases. Their model predicts that the coronavirus pandemic will end 100-days after March 2, which falls on May 29, 2020.

    M SYAIFULLAH (CONTRIBUTOR)