Professor's Mathematical Model Predicts End of COVID-19 Outbreak

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Statistics experts and alumni of the Gadjah Mada University (UGM) predicted the end of the COVID-19 pandemic by using a mathematical probabilistic data-driven model. It shows the spread of coronavirus in Indonesia will stop by the end of May this year. 

The experts also predict that COVID-19 cases could infect at least 6,174 people nationwide by the end of next month. 

"Through rather effective government intervention, the total number of COVID-19 patients could total at 6,200 by the end of the pandemic,” said the person in charge of the project and UGM statistics professor Dedi Rosadi through a video conference today, April 1.

The mathematical prediction was co-handled by fellow experts: Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science UGM alumni Heribertus Joko and PPRA National Resilience Institute (Lemhanas) alumni, who is also the author of ‘Worry Marketing’ Fidelis I Diponegoro.

Dedi argues that a number of dynamic mathematical predictive models tend to be exaggerated in terms of coronavirus patients. He explains that their model predicts the maximum addition of daily COVID-19 patients in the second week of April 2020, on April 7-11. 

“There will be 740 to 800 additional daily cases before it’s predicted to decrease,” said Dedi, adding that mid-May of 2020 would see a relatively small total addition of cases. Their model predicts that the coronavirus pandemic will end 100-days after March 2, which falls on May 29, 2020.

M SYAIFULLAH (CONTRIBUTOR)