TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) coordinator of earthquake and tsunami mitigation, Daryono, in a tweet on March 4 addressed a social media account that claimed to have forecasted an earthquake from the Sumatran Fault based on cloud formations.

Daryono, in his tweet said “How do you know the clouds and earthquakes [are related?] Please don’t further unsettle a community that has been struck by an earthquake,” he tweeted, “An earthquake is a scientific process and has no links to clouds.”

He attached his tweet with a screenshot of the initial social media account that posted the earthquake prediction.

He then cited the United States Geological Survey (USGS) which has already debunked myths surrounding earthquake predictions and noted that the prediction by this social media account in question fits the USGS description on baseless quake prediction claims.

USGS explains in its website that earthquake “forecasts” are not based on scientific evidence, and that quakes are part of a scientific process. For example, it explains that earthquakes have nothing to do with clouds, bodily aches and pains, or slugs and do not define all three of the elements required for a prediction; which are date and time, location, and magnitude.

Predictions (by non-scientists) usually start swirling around social media when something happens that is thought to be a precursor to an earthquake in the near future. The so-called precursor is often a swarm of small earthquakes, increasing amounts of radon in local water, unusual behavior of animals, increasing size of magnitudes in moderate size events, or a moderate-magnitude event rare enough to suggest that it might be a foreshock.

Unfortunately, most such precursors frequently occur without being followed by an earthquake, so a real prediction is not possible.

Read: 5.9-magnitude Earthquake Strikes Aceh Jaya

ZACHARIAS WURAGIL