Expert Predicts 240,000 Covid Cases in Jakarta by February; Suggests Lockdown
28 December 2020 10:42 WIB
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Syahrizal Syarif, an epidemiologist from the University of Indonesia, estimates that the number of Covid-19 cases in Jakarta will reach 240,000 by early February 2021. Area quarantine or lockdown, he said, is the best solution to control the outbreak.
"Meanwhile, the number of cases in Indonesia can reach 1 million. Jakarta currently accounts for 24 percent of the cases nation-wide," Syahrizal said in a text message, Sunday, December 27.
Jakarta, he said, is most at risk of coronavirus transmission, with a risk level of Covid-19 that is eight times higher than East Java and Central Java.
"Compared to West Java, the potential for Covid-19 transmission is 11 times higher," he said.
The transmission risk figure is obtained from the cumulative incidence count, which is the cumulative number of cases divided by 100,000 people of the population.
Seeing the high potential for Covid-19 transmission in Jakarta, Syahrizal advised Governor Anies Baswedan to immediately implement a lockdown or area quarantine. He said that regional or partial quarantine is the best solution to control this outbreak, because "the PSBB Transisi has not been effective in preventing transmission."
To date, Jakarta has recorded a total of 175,926 Covid-19 cases with 158,615 recoveries (90.2 percent). The mortality rate is 1.8 percent, with 3,204 deaths from/related to the disease.