TEMPO.CO, Tehran - After the huge protests following the 2009 election, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may have hoped June polls would quietly fortify a loyal conservative president, but the surprising candidacies of the two major independents may scatter that.
Both Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie, the nationalist protégé of outspoken President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president and Iran's best known political grandee, are seen as threats to the leader's authority.
Khamenei personally intervened to prevent Mashaie from becoming the vice-president in 2009 - such was his disapproval of a man conservatively accused of leading a "deviant current" within Islam that seeks to undermine the power of Muslim mufties. It is believed that it would not be likely for the Guardian Council to pass him, which will affect Ahmadinejad’s position in the future.
Ahmadinejad claimed to have a wealth of potentially damaging information on a number of establishment figures. "The question is whether Ahmadinejad will fulfill his threat to release all sorts of tapes of secret conversations and corruption. Releasing this will be something of a double-edged sword," said Ali Ansari of the University of St Andrews in Scotland.
On the other hand, the supreme leader's rivalry with Rafsanjani, a seasoned political operator, goes back decades. As president between 1989 and 1997, Rafsanjani clashed with Khamenei and hardliners over his pragmatic plans to mend relations with regional states and liberalize Iran's economy. But it was support for the reformist "Green Movement" protests against Ahmadinejad's disputed 2009 election win, that cast him out in the cold.
If Mashaie makes it through the vetting process, the election on June 14 could turn into a three-horse race between him, Rafsanjani and one of several "Principlist" candidates - those who are fiercely loyal to Khamenei and the principles of the Islamic Republic.
Struggling with sanctions over its disputed nuclear program, and backing Bashar al-Assad in Syria's civil war - the president is one of Tehran's few and closest allies - the Iranian leadership is keen to show the world it has a strong, harmonious, fully functioning political system.
Khamenei has the highest authority over almost all matters in the Islamic Republic. However, past experiences have shown that presidents also have certain power. Ahmadinejad, for instance, has shown himself capable in the past year of striking out at his political enemies, a prospect that could prove highly damaging to the Islamic Republic and its leader.
REUTER | GUARDIAN | ABDUL MANAN
