Trump Media, Gun Stocks Surge as Donald Trump Presidency Odds Hike Post Shooting

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Crypto stocks, gun stocks, and shares of other companies that could benefit from a Donald Trump presidency jumped on Monday, July 15, after an assassination attempt on the Republican candidate boosted expectations he would win the November election.

Trump's survival after he was shot in the ear increased his already considerable lead in betting odds over current President Joe Biden.

Those odds rose more later on Monday after Trump chose U.S. Senator J.D. Vance to be his vice president as the Republican Party officially nominated the former president to run again at the start of the party's national convention in Milwaukee.

On the politics-wagering website PredictIt, contracts for a Trump election victory traded at 70 cents, up from 60 cents on Friday, with a potential payout of US$1. Contracts for a Biden victory were at 26 cents.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O), majority-owned by Trump, soared 31 percent, lifting its stock market value to US$7.7 billion, despite revenue comparable to two US Starbucks shops.

Trump Media is the parent company of social media platform Truth Social, and its shares have now surged 132 percent in 2024 as retail traders bet Trump will win a second term as president. 

"It's nearly four months to go (until the election) and things can change, but today the markets are betting on Trump being the victor," said Ben Laidler, head of equity strategy at Bradesco BBI, adding that Trump Media "is the tip of the spear and the most sensitive to a Trump victory."

Shares of electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA.O) ended 1.8 percent higher after billionaire CEO Elon Musk publicly following the shooting. Tesla gave back earlier gains of as much as 7 percent after the announcement of Vance as Trump's running mate.

Crypto stocks soared on Monday, tracking a 10 percent rally in bitcoin to a two-week high. Trump has presented himself as a champion of cryptocurrency. Crypto exchange Coinbase Global (COIN.O), bitcoin miners Riot Platforms (RIOT.O),  and Marathon Digital (MARA.O) jumped between 11 to 18 percent.

Long-dated US bond yields rose on expectations that Trump policies would drive up government debt and stoke inflation, while the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) rose 0.3 percent.

Gun makers and ammunition stocks Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI.O), Sturm Ruger & Company (RGR.N), and Ammo (POWW.O) jumped between 5 and 15 percent. Gun stocks in the past have surged following mass shootings, civil unrest, and fears of gun control that have led to people purchasing more firearms out of fear that their availability would become limited.

Shares of private prison operators Geo Group (GEO.N), and CoreCivic (CXW.N) each jumped about 8 percent. Both are potential beneficiaries of a Trump presidency as he has promised to crack down on illegal immigration, which could boost demand for detention centers.

On the other hand, clean energy stocks slipped as Trump has said he would reverse many of the Biden administration's signature climate policies, including tax incentives if he wins the election.

The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN.P) fell 5.9 percent and the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN.O) fell 3.9 percent. The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI.O) dropped about 2 percent as investors believe a second Trump presidency could fuel trade tensions between Beijing and the United States.

US voters view Trump as the better candidate for the economy, according to Reuters/Ipsos polls, even as Biden's White House seeks to benefit from a solid economy with inflation slowing and low unemployment.

REUTERS

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