Rupiah Projected to Fall to Rp16,470 per US Dollar

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Ibrahim Assuaibi, Director of Laba Forexindo Berjangka, forecasts that the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar will continue to weaken on Monday, June 17, 2024. "The rupiah is fluctuating but expected to close weaker in the range of Rp16,400 to Rp16,470," he said in his routine analysis.

At the close of trading last week on Friday, the US dollar index strengthened, putting pressure on the rupiah. The rupiah's exchange rate weakened by 142 points to Rp16,412 per US dollar. The day before, the rupiah closed at Rp16,270 per US dollar.

He attributed the primary cause of the stronger dollar and weaker rupiah to the trade war between the European Union, the US, and China. The trade war intensified after the EU imposed high tariffs on the sale of electric vehicle components and batteries.

He noted that global economic risks remain skewed to the downside, despite the potential for some positive surprises. "Rising geopolitical tensions could lead to volatile commodity prices, while further trade fragmentation risks additional disruptions to trade networks," he said.

According to Ibrahim, trade policy uncertainty has reached exceptionally high levels compared to previous years. Persistent inflation could also delay monetary easing.

Additionally, high interest rates will dampen global activity. Some major economies are at risk of slower growth than projected due to various domestic challenges. Moreover, additional natural disasters related to climate change also pose a risk to economic activity.

To mitigate negative global economic risks, Ibrahim stated that the Indonesian government must continue to collaborate with policymakers to support economic growth, both in the medium and long term.

"The goal is to enhance productivity growth, improve public investment efficiency, develop human resources, and close the gender gap in the labor market," he said.

ANNISA FEBIOLA

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