Rupiah Climbs against Dollar amidst Market Optimism over Indonesia's Economy

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The rupiah closed 15 points up to trade for 15,810 per US dollar on Monday's trade, January 29. PT Laba Forexindo Berjangka director and analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi predicts the rupiah will keep strengthening in tomorrow's trade, moving between 15,780 and 15,840 per dollar.

In his daily research, Ibrahim highlighted the government's as well as economists' optimism that Indonesia's economic growth in 2023 had reached more than 5 percent.

"Similarly, this year, Indonesia's economy is predicted to grow even higher and far from recession, despite the escalating geopolitical tensions," Ibrahim said in an official statement, Monday.

Ibrahim said that based on a number of indicators, Indonesia's economic growth in Q4/2023 could reach more than 5 percent. One of those indicators, he said, is the increasingly sloping inflation rate. In December 2023, inflation rate stood at 2.61 percent, which was within the government's target range.

Other internal factors include the debt ratio that improved in 2023 to around 38.7 percent, and the trade balance that continues to stay at a surplus for 40 consecutive months.

As for external factors, Ibrahim said that the rupiah is affected by investors' anticipation for a series of important United States economic data to be released next week, such as the non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for January and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The market, according to Ibrahim, is fully anticipating the Fed's first interest rate cut to occur during its May meeting, with a probability of around 90 percent.

Defara Dhanya Paramitha

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