TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Eddy Hermawan, an expert researcher at the Center for Climate and Atmospheric Research at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), said that the sea surface temperatures that cause the El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena are now transitioning towards the neutral phase.

These two phenomena are unlikely to have a significant impact on Indonesia's annual periodic seasons, namely the north and south monsoons, in 2024. “On a global scale, there will be no prolonged dry or wet seasons,” Eddy said on Friday, February 23, 2024.

He explained that the rainy season on the north or north coast of Java, South Sumatra, South Kalimantan, and Sulawesi will continue until the end of February. “But the rain intensity will drop, no extreme rainfall [is expected],” he added.

The transition period to the dry season will start from March to May. Hence, the dry season will arrive in June and last until August. However, several regions such as Aceh and North Sumatra could still be wet or drenched with rain. “Because of its proximity to the Indian Ocean,” Eddy added.

Experts from BRIN, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), and several universities including the Bandung Institute of Technology, Sriwijaya University, and Hasanudin University, had discussed the forecast of Indonesia's seasons. They are members of a group called the National Climate Expert Forum.

The forum reached a consensus through meetings to discuss predictions of the rainy and dry seasons in the archipelago, which are held twice a year, usually between January, February, and August.

Several weather monitoring institutions from different countries around Indonesia also predicted seasonal patterns without the influence of El Nino or La Nina. The El Nino phenomenon has been observed to appear since May 2023, resulting in a prolonged dry season in Indonesia after the annual season in previous years was influenced by the La Nina phenomenon, which resulted in a wet-dry season.

ANWAR SISWADI

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