TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) estimated that this year’s El Nino-induced drought will not be as severe as in 2023. Eddy Hermawan, the lead expert researcher at the BRIN’s Center for Climate and Atmospheric Research, said that the climate phenomenon intensified last year and would creep down in 2024.

“There is a potential for drought but it will not be extreme as El Nino is weakening,” Eddy said on Sunday, January 28.

El Nino would not weaken immediately, but slowly after the peak phase passes this month. This condition would be different from the phenomenon back in 2015 which fluctuated dramatically. “The current pattern will not be like that. Because it will last long and will not show extreme patterns, the impact will sometimes not be really felt,” he added.

For example, the rainfall intensity in the third ten days of January 2024 was predicted to be in the medium category. However, the West Java Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency forecasted that the rainfall in the majority, or 78%, would be below normal. These include Bogor, Sukabumi, Cianjur, Greater Bandung, Garut and Pangandaran.

The BRIN team also assessed that rainfall intensity would begin to decline, while El Nino would still peak in January 2024. “I think the peak of the rainy season has already occurred in December,” said Eddy.

He noted that the weather forecast was derived from various sources, including the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University, the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center (ASMC) in Singapore, and the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA).

ANWAR SISWADI (CONTRIBUTOR)

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