TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency at the end of last year warned that Indonesia would face an El Niño-induced drought during August and September this year. El Niño, a dry weather phenomenon that usually causes the earth’s temperature to rise, is threatening food production as the dry spell could result in crop failure. Food scarcity usually arises three months after the dry season begins.

Arief Prasetyo Adi, Chief of the National Food Agency, said the government had anticipated this urgency and taken some precautionary steps. As of Wednesday, August 16, he added, the State Logistics Agency (Bulog) had stockpiled 1.3 million tons of rice, and efforts were still underway to add another 700,000 tons. “We’ve been preparing for El Niño, Lebaran (end of fasting month celebrations), and the elections,” Arief told Tempo reporters at his office on Friday, August 18.

Over one and a half hours, Arief explained the data on the needs and production of 10 food items, from rice to egg, which the National Food Agency is responsible for, and explained what the government had been doing to reduce the impact of El Niño. He also questioned the commitment of the regional governments to food resilience given the fact that they only allocated less than one percent of the budget to food.

In the meeting two weeks ago, what did President Joko Widodo ask about the El Niño’s impact?

Everything. I got the question as to why food prices were fluctuating. Who has the answer actually? Producers, of course. I only oversee stocks. It’s a breeze. Just import everything and I can meet (all the demands), like supermarkets. But we can’t be like that. We have farmers, poultry farmers. Price adjustments at the farmers will surely have impact downstream.

In your estimation, when does the total rice production fall?

This is the trends in 2021 and 2022.

How does El Niño impact rice production?

What we need to do is to boost production. Don’t blame the large number of rice milling machines of large producers. Their machine’s milling capacity is only 20 percent meaning they have shortages. The countries with an oversupply of rice are Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand. Besides stockpiling, they also export. But don’t jump straight to import. Let’s clear this first.

What is the current rice stock?

According to the data as of August 16, Bulog has a stock of 1.3 million tons from Vietnam, Thailand, and a little bit from India and Pakistan.

Why only little came from India?

They have elections next year.

Rice production is expected to fall by five percent. Is the Bulog’s stock sufficient?

It depends. We don’t know how harvests in the next three months will be. It’s safe if the fall is just five percent. It’s sufficient. My assignment letter to Bulog for last year was for 500,000 tons, and two million tons for early this year because we anticipated the situation. Now, we’ll see how August, September and October go. (The color) black dominates the (temperature) map meaning there are droughts. Everyone said food production would go down. Globally, Africa is extremely dry as outlined by the black color. Indonesia in orange means (the heat) is still medium. The conditions in August, September and October will have effects three months later. It means we should remain vigilant until January because farmers can’t grow optimally.

What can be done to change the situation?

The government has built reservoirs, irrigation canals and drilled wells and prepared the infrastructure to ensure sufficient water reserves. It’s costly to apply weather modification method such as dispersing salt in the air. If we are already aware of this pattern, why should people still say, “I wonder why the rice prices increased?” We know our production is limited, so, we have to have food stocks.

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When the production situation is like the current one, I, for instance, would ask Bulog to absorb supplies domestically. Have the local prices increased? Definitely yes. So, is it wrong that we imported two million tons to boost Bulog’s stock?

Some view import as an indication that the ministry’s performance is poor…

Not like that. We achieve self-sufficiency when 90 percent of supplies come from local production. So, it’s okay to import 3 million (tons) when our need is 30 million (tons) a year.

Like fuel oil imports?

Why isn’t there much ado over fuel oil imports? There’s no outcry over massive soybean imports either. What is our soy production actually? And garlic? Why isn’t there any fuss?

Previously, there was a narrative that said we had a rice surplus, right?

That’s why we are now disclosing the true situation. Look at China with a population of 1.45 billion. They need 155 million tons while they produce 148 million tons. They import 5.6 million tons and export 2.25 million tons. The percentage of imports versus requirements is 3.5 percent. Does it work? It does because import is still below 10 percent.

Many say that the rice import policy does not favor farmers. Is it true?

Which farmers are complaining? Look at the Farmer Exchange Rate (FER) of 104. It was previously below 100. It means farmers are having a windfall. Don’t ruin it again. How to ruin it? The egg price is higher than last year. So, it should be Rp22,000 (about US$1.4) per kilogram. It will ruin farmers and poultry farmers’ FER because all variable costs have gone up.

The rice stock in the government’s hands does not influence price fluctuations in the market.

Because it’s not used for intervention.

When did the government intervene?

Look at the volatile food data. How come no one said why there was deflation yesterday (May, June, July)? Deflation didn’t fall from the sky. The government intervened in those three months through food aid programs.

Now it hasn’t intervened because the rice prices are still considered reasonable.

No. We are preparing ways in case we intervene. Government food reserves will have to be increased first. If we distribute everything, Bulog will be left with no reserve. Will it have an impact? It will. Otherwise, how will we intervene (in the future)? If huge reserves are not used, will the prices go up? They still will. That’s why it’s really dangerous if we don’t have stocks as harvests decline yet there’s no intervention.

There’s no need for intervention yet with a current average rice price of Rp13,000 (US$0.85) per kilogram?

Later. The plan is to provide food aid in October, November and December. I tasked Bulog with the job last July to distribute government food reserves through the rice aid program.

Why the need to wait till October?

We must maintain Bulog’s stock. How much do we need if starting in August, September, October? 640,000 tons. It means Bulog will only have 500,000 tons left. Do you dare? So, just stock up first. And intervene when the stock has been sufficiently increased. Don’t intervene first otherwise ‘the gas’ will run out. A lot of people made an oration, “See, the government is not good at managing food stocks.” Looking at who? The head of the National Food Agency although the problem lies in production.

What do you mean?

It could be because of El Niño or the plants not getting enough fertilizers. We should speak without blaming the ministry or other agencies. There are issues such as climate change, El Niño, rising prices of goods, shifts in consumer preferences. I mean, let’s not discredit others. We should prepare to move forward.

So, there are no issues with the 10 necessities that the Food Agency is responsible for?

That is why food reserves are important. Have you ever seen the food aid to Papua? People here shouldn’t say, “Papua people are neglected.”

Food diversity in Papua has been disrupted because a lot of land has been turned into oil palm plantations…

Ask the producers. Don’t throw this question at me.

Besides import, what else can be done to mitigate the impact of El Niño?

The food reserves, again. To have food security, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) must have food reserves. Because ‘S’ in SOE means the state. What SOEs Minister Erick Thohir said was true that SOEs must be profitable but remember ‘S’ in SOEs. They may profit but may not go overboard. I am still trying until today for SOEs to get loans with low interest rates.

Read the Full Interview in Tempo English Magazine