TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - A number of major natural disasters have indeed repeatedly occurred in Indonesia at the end of the year. The latest one was the eruption of Mount Semeru in East Java on Sunday, December 4, 2022. There was also a devastating earthquake in Cianjur of West Java on November 21, 2022, which killed 334 people. As of today, December 6, at least 8 people are still reported missing.

The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) recorded that several major disasters indeed occurred before or at the end of the year. For example, the eruption of Mount Merapi on November 5, 2010, the earthquake and liquefaction in Donggala of Central Sulawesi on September 28, 2018, and the Aceh tsunami on December 26, 2004.

This raises the question of whether or not major natural disasters hit Indonesia more often at the end of the year.

BMKG’s Explanation

The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) emphasized that natural disasters, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis can occur anytime and anywhere.

“So we all have to be vigilant (over any disasters),” wrote the BMKG in its official statement, on December 3, 2021.

Natural disasters cannot be forecasted. In the case of earthquakes, the US Geological Survey explains that no technology can help scientists predict disasters precisely to date.

Thus, the presumption that there are many year-end disasters in Indonesia cannot be justified nor is it completely true. Although some major disasters occur at the end of the year, the total number of disasters in a year is not always concentrated in the fourth trimester.

BNPB’s Disaster Data

The following is a list of the number of natural disasters per month in Indonesia in 2021:

1. 523 disasters in January
2. 613 disasters in February
3. 456 disasters in March
4. 366 disasters in April
5. 261 disasters in May
6. 197 disasters in June
7. 170 disasters in July
8. 61 disasters in August
9. 80 disasters in September
10. 173 disasters in October
11. 365 disasters in November
12. 249 disasters in December

Referring to the BNPB data, it could be concluded that the highest number of natural disasters was in February, followed by January and March, or at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the least number of disasters was recorded in August.

ACHMAD HANIF IMADUDDIN

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