TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Prabowo Subianto`s announcement that he will run as Gerindra`s presidential candidate in 2019 can be seen from two points of view. First, the declaration reopened old wounds that had not yet healed: Prabowo is responsible for a number of past human rights violations, including the kidnapping of 1998 activists.
Secondly, however controversial, Prabowo does have political rights paired with substantial opportunity. He also leads Gerindra, which won third place in the 2014 legislative election. According to several surveys, Prabowo's electability is second only to President Joko Widodo. Currently, besides incumbent contender President Jokowi, Prabowo is the only one to have stated his intention to join the race as a presidential candidate.
Considering these facts, reports that Jokowi is attempting to embrace Prabowo as a vice presidential candidate must be examined. According to United Development Party (PPP) chair Romahurmuziy, the plan is meant to prevent public fissures, such as those that occurred in the 2014 election.
In 2014, the public was split between Jokowi supporters and Prabowo supporters. Ethnic, religious, and race divisions ran rampant. Three years later, a similar phenomenon occurred during the Jakarta gubernatorial race. Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, backed among others by Jokowi's supporting party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), ran against Anies Baswedan, backed by Prabowo. In next year's election, as many as 320,000 legislative candidates will also compete for votes. Jokowi and Prabowo's diametrical positions are expected to heat up, reaching legislative candidates' campaign arenas.
Jokowi's courtship of his political opponent sparked speculation that Prabowo was not serious when he declared his presidential candidacy. The declaration two weeks ago is seen as simply part of an effort to maintain the party's solidarity. Like the Democratic Party, Gerindra is a party whose survival relies on its chairperson.
Additionally, there are other reasons for Prabowo's hesitance, among others the issue of logistics. Prabowo is believed to have access to less capital compared to four years ago. Yet another factor: Prabowo cannot advance on his own. With 13 percent of House of Representatives (DPR) seats and only 11.8 percent of votes in the 2014 election, Gerindra cannot nominate a presidential candidate without the support of other parties. The Justice and Prosperity Party (PKS), a party seen as a potential Prabowo supporter, has yet to step forward.
The Jokowi-Prabowo alliance may well give a good impression, as it is meant to overcome public divisiveness and solve Prabowo's problem of finding a bedfellow. The marriage can also save political costs. Without competition, there is almost no cost to be incurred.
However, if true, it would be the beginning of a democratic tragedy in this country. No matter what, a government must be kept in check by an opposition force. Checks and balances will not happen if opposition parties become allies. A third axis is unlikely to take shape because the Jokowi-Prabowo coalition has embraced most parties. The worst scenario in the election: the Jokowi-Prabowo pair will not face any competition.
The presidential threshold is at the root of this predicament. The rule allows only political parties or coalitions of parties with 20 percent of parliamentary seats or 25 percent of national votes to nominate candidate pairs in the presidential election. Therefore, alternative candidates are difficult to come by. Hence democracy has been hijacked by a handful of oligarchs and is now held hostage and restricted to an affair of procedures, as opposed to one of substance.
Since there is more than ample time, Jokowi should dispose of the partnership plan. Because he was chosen by the public in the election four years ago, he must realize that safeguarding democracy is a mandate. Wanting to keep in power is not wrong, but to all intents and purposes, the intention should be carried out by strengthening democracy.
Similar hope should be conveyed to Prabowo. He should dismiss any thought of seizing the throne through this alliance. Indeed, he has lost in three elections, with substantial moral and material costs. But all his 'work' would be in vain if he thought only of himself. Prabowo will be remembered in history if he decides to preserve democracy, even if it means losing the opportunity to instantly enter the circle of power.
If he is uncertain he can win the fight, Prabowo can follow a number of pieces of advice, including to support other candidates and exercise authority as a 'kingmaker'. In the upcoming election, the candidate pair who has his support may end up winning or losing, but Prabowo himself would be remembered forever as a democrat.
Read the full article in this week's edition of Tempo English Magazine
