Philippines, 4 Asean Member-states Urged to Form Coalition in South China Sea
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29 December 2021 21:06 WIB
Asean Subgroup
South China Sea analysts. PCIJ
Four analysts and observers raised the need for a subgroup or coalition within Asean in separate interviews with the PCIJ in the wake of Locsin’s statement.
They said the smaller grouping could be composed of four Asean member-states with claims in the South China Sea — the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei. Indonesia could be the fifth member because of its concerns over the Natuna Islands, which is not part of Beijing’s nine-dash-line claim over the disputed waters but have seen frequent visits from Chinese vessels.
“The best that I could see happening would be if the claimant states acted independently of Asean. Minilateralism is the only way forward,” said Zachary Abuza, an expert on Southeast Asia at the US National War College in Washington.
Antonio Carpio, a former justice of the Philippine Supreme Court who has led an information campaign on the country’s sovereign rights over the disputed seas, said Asean’s decision-making process, which requires a consensus, has shackled the 10-member bloc.
“The five Asean coastal states prejudiced by China’s nine-dash line should form a coalition of the willing to oppose China’s hegemony and bullying in the South China Sea,” Carpio said. “The most urgent concern is for Asean to demand that China respect the maritime zones of the five Asean coastal states as guaranteed under Unclos (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) to which China and all Asean coastal states are parties,” he added.
Abuza said the coalition should be led by Indonesia. Carpio said it should be led by the Philippines.
The proposal to create a subgrouping within Asean had been previously discussed among South China Sea observers. It was revived amid the urgency of a pushback against an increasingly aggressive China.
The subgrouping should also lead the drafting of the COC to manage tensions in the disputed waters, they added.
Julio Amador, interim president of the Foundation for the National Interest, a think tank based in Manila, was initially optimistic that Asean could play a significant role in managing the conflicts. He wasn’t anymore.
The problem, said Amador, was that the vision of a united Asean negotiating with China didn’t happen. “It became an 11-country discussion, which is a completely different creature,” Amador said.
“Now I think it’s time. It may be a little late actually. Maybe we should get all the claimant countries within Asean first to sit down,” he said.
Thomas Daniel, a senior fellow at Malaysia’s Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS), said a subgrouping was one way to move forward, although he was not optimistic that even the claimant countries could unite.
“We’re talking about mitigating tensions in the maritime domain, right? I think it should be primarily led by the member-states that have a direct stake, the littoral states. And they could be supported by other Asean member-states that have direct interest in supporting the positions of the former,” he said.
“I would argue that Asean’s role is at best to play a supporting role to its member-states that have legitimate interests in the South China Sea. To me that would be a much more promising way of moving forward,” he said.
Alexander Vuving, a Hanoi-born professor at the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS) in Hawaii, has dismissed the COC as a “vain ambition” following China’s buildup in the disputed seas and its rejection of the 2016 PCA ruling. “Against this background, Asean can only maintain its relevance by sticking to the accepted international law, especially Unclos and the PCA rulings, rather than seeking a compromise between the freedom and openness of the sea and China’s demands,” Vuving said.
Unequal Importance of South China Sea to Member-states
Asean flags ilustration. PCIJ
Daniel said he was not surprised that the COC did not move forward as its proponents had initially hoped. The South China Sea dispute does not weigh equally to all Asean member-states, he said. “Not everyone thinks that Asean should be leading that issue in the South China Sea,” he said.
Other Asean member-countries have a separate dispute with China over the Mekong River, a trans-boundary river that flows through China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. The damming of the river by China and Laos limited water supply to neighboring countries. “But how often do you see these issues being raised by Malaysia, Philippines, and Indonesia?” said Daniel.
Abuza said Asean has “proven feckless in resolving” several issues — not just the South China Sea dispute and the damming of the Mekong River, but also the civil war in Myanmar. He cited several member-states’ dependency on China due to debts and other economic entanglements.
But this does not make Asean irrelevant, said Daniel. “It does have an influence. That is why everyone watches what it says… If China has its way, these statements won’t even be there.”
“The fact that Asean as a group continues to express concerns on developments in the South China Sea and take efforts to mitigate them is itself important... I guess what people are upset about is that perhaps there is a lot more that can be done,” he said.
The role of the Asean chairman, rotated among member-countries, would continue to be important, Daniel added. “The chair needs to be able to tread this fine line and balance between the legitimate interests of its member-states and the association and obviously pressure and influence coming from external actors. Beijing is able to play that pressure on certain member-states but not all.”
Cambodia, whose pro-Beijing stance has prevented a regional consensus on the South China Sea dispute, will serve as Asean chairman in 2022.
