Philippines, 4 Asean Member-states Urged to Form Coalition in South China Sea
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29 December 2021 21:06 WIB
Resolve Internal Issues First
PHILIPPINE REEF. Satellite images show China’s construction activities on Panganiban or Mischief Reef located inside the Philippine’s Exclusive Economic Zone. Images from Simularity
China has taken advantage of the delay in the sea code of conduct to change the facts in the disputed waters, an indication of China’s lack of sincerity, experts said. Beijing fortified its artificial islands further. It also passed a Coast Guard law that allowed the use of force, contrary to the peace and stability that the proposed COC envisioned. These moves undermined the future of the COC, experts said.
Apart from the Philippines, the other Asean states in the proposed coalition have had a spate of high-profile skirmishes with China in the past decade.
Earlier in the year, Beijing reportedly demanded Indonesia to stop drilling oil and gas off the waters of Natuna Islands, which it said was Chinese territory.
In 2019, before the pandemic, China sent its ships off Sarawak to engage Malaysia in a standoff over the deployment of West Capella, a drillship contracted by Malaysia’s state-owned energy company Petronas. Vietnam also sent its ships.
In 2014, China and Vietnam had a similar standoff after Beijing planted an oil rig inside Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone. It led to deadly anti-China riots in Vietnamese cities.
“China chooses when and how to escalate, and against whom. They are careful not to pick fights with more than two of the claimants at a time, for fear of a collective response,” said Abuza.
A coalition of five member-states could launch a more effective pushback against China, analysts said. But the subgrouping would have to resolve their own territorial disputes first, they said.
“We need to show first and foremost that among the claimant countries, we can actually start discussions without having to threaten anybody. In the first place, we shouldn’t seek China’s permission because internally within Asean, we have issues in the South China Sea,” said Amador. Abuza agreed. “Until the claimant states resolve their own differences and come up with a common position, nothing will happen. China takes advantage of this very effectively,” he said.
“Even if Asean didn’t have consensus-based decision-making, I’m not sure if the grouping would confront China. But let me say this: China is afraid of a multilateral and unified Asean response. If it wasn’t, it wouldn’t put such efforts into keeping the organization divided,” he said.
Internationalization of the dispute
Meanwhile, the world’s militaries have joined the US in pushing back China in the South China Sea, further militarizing the waters. In April 2021, the European Union announced a new policy to step up its presence in the region.
“You cannot now divorce it from the whole geopolitics of the region. They do have fundamental interests particularly the freedom of the seas, trade, freedom of navigation, and the ability to travel to these areas. They will protect those interests,’ said Amador.
Internationalizing the dispute might be the best way forward, analysts said.
“Others think that because Asean and other member-states are not really capable of managing this by themselves — and realistically they are just not — maybe it is a good idea to internationalize this as much as possible,” said Daniel.
But even as Asean relies on alliances to push back Beijing, analysts said further increasing tensions in the region was the last thing the 10-member bloc wanted. Whatever happens to the COC talks, the analysts cautioned against a document that is ultimately dictated by Beijing.
A sneak peek of the COC talks, based on an article on The Diplomat, said China had proposed to insert a provision to exclude companies from outside the region from any cooperation. Malaysia reportedly opposed it, proposing instead a provision stating that nothing in the COC “shall affect… rights or ability of the Parties to conduct activities with foreign countries or private entities of their own choosing.”
In his recent statement, the Philippines’s Locsin also opposed “the exclusion of any outside power from the South China Sea.”
Vuving offered a warning: “China will only endorse a Code of Conduct that reflects and reinforces a China-led hierarchical order, not an order based on neutral rules such as Unclos. The Code of Conduct, if accepted by China, will have the job of surreptitiously endorsing China’s faits accomplis, including its violations of Unclos as confirmed by the PCA in its 2016 rulings.”
Such outcome would make things worse for some claimant states, said Amador. It also wouldn’t be acceptable to external stakeholders that would need to be bound by the same code of conduct.
It’s not just Asean’s relevance that is on the line, analysts said, but peace and stability in the region. For the fishermen of Barangay Cato in Infanta, they asked for their livelihood to be protected. “Ang gusto lang namin ay makapangisda sila ng maayos at maraming silang mahuli (Our only wish is they can fish in peace and bring home a bountiful catch,” said Barmachea.
Carmela Fonbuena | Joseph Luigi Almuena, PCIJ.org
(This article is produced as part of the Seafore Masterclass project, with support from the Institute for War and Peace Reporting)
