TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – An economic analyst at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef), Ahmad Erani Yustica, doubted the government could reach next year's economic growth target at 6 percent.

“In my opinion, the realistic growth rate would be at 5.5-5.7 percent,” Erani told Tempo on Friday, August 15, 2014.

Ahmad made the statement in light of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s speech today on the 2015 draft state budget at the House of Representatives. The president said the economic growth would be at the tune of 5.5-6 percent.

Erani said Indonesia did not have the ability to boost export value yet as the growth of the international market would not be as significant as expected.

Erani explained the inflation rate would be at five percent, while the government estimated it would hover around 3.5-5 percent in the 2015 macro assumption.

The government also projected in the macro assumption of the 2015 state budget that the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar would swing between Rp11,500-Rp12,100.

The three-month interest rate, meanhwile, was projected at 6-6.5 percent and the oil lifting target would be around 830,000-900,000 barrels per day.

PRIO HARI KRISTANTO