TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The latest survey conducted by the pollster Lingkaran Survei Indonesia (LSI) Denny JA revealed that the electability rate of the incumbent candidate Joko Widodo or Jokowi - Ma'ruf Amin amounted to 58.7 percent, far bested the opponent Prabowo Subianto - Sandiaga Uno at 30.9 percent.

The LSI senior researcher, Ardian Sopa, said his agency predicted that Jokowi would surely win the race since the electability gap reached 27.8 percent for the past two months ahead of the election.

Based on LSI Denny JA data, Jokowi - Ma'ruf obtained 52.2 percent votes in August, up 53.2 percent in September and 57.7 percent in October. The figure declined to 53.2 percent in November, yet the rate gradually increased to 54.2 percent in December, 54.8 percent in January 2019, and 58.7 percent in February.

Meanwhile, Prabowo - Sandiaga’s electability rate dropped for three months; 29.5 percent in August, 29.2 percent in September, 28.6 percent in October. The figure climbed to 31.2 percent in November, yet decreased again to 30.6 percent in December. Earlier this year, the rate increased to 31.0 percent and slightly down to 30.9 percent in February.

“As viewed from this trend, Jokowi has the high possibility of winning the 2019 presidential election,” Ardian remarked.

LSI Denny JA ran the survey on February 18-25, 2019, toward 1,200 respondents across 34 Indonesian provinces using a multistage random sampling method and direct interview. The margin of error of the poll was 2.8 percent. In addition to the survey, the pollster conducted qualitative research using FGD (focus group discussion), media analysis, and in-depth interview to strengthen its analysis.

DEWI NURITA