TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, an economist with the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef), projects the trade balance for September 2018 will still show a deficit. Bhima estimated a deficit of US$1 billion to US$1.5 billion.

For the entire year of 2018, Bhima projected the deficit to reach US$9.5 billion.

His projection is based on the slowing export growth as a result of world countries' trade protection policies—especially India's decision to increase the duty for Indonesia's CPO.

"The demand recovery for raw materials from industries in as China and Europe are considerably slow, along with the slowing growth of their manufacturing output," Bhima told Tempo on Monday, October 15.

On the import side, Bhima said that the deficit is caused by rising fuel import value that comes with the rupiah correction against the US dollar. Another contributing factor is the nine-percent increase of Brent price reference in September.

"The five top import posts value are dominated by infrastructure needs; machinery, electrical equipment, and steel and iron," he remarked.

The deficit trend, he added, will last until the end of 2018—along with increasing demands of imported goods ahead of the Christmas and New Year's holiday.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) today is scheduled to announce Indonesia's export and imports performances for September. The announcement is scheduled to be made at 11:00, Jakarta time.

MUHAMMAD HENDARTYO