Recent Study Shows Potential Extreme Drought in IKN and Parts of Kalimantan by 2050

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Climate change and global warming are predicted to have a severe impact on Kalimantan. The results of a modeling study conducted by a Climatology Researcher at the Center for Climate and Atmospheric Research, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Erma Yulihastin, concluded that East Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, and West Kalimantan will potentially experience extreme drought until 2033. 

"Since IKN (Nusantara Capital City) in East Kalimantan will be the center of government, the risk of temperature and air drying out is hazardous," Erma told Tempo, on Friday, March 15, 2024.

Erma's study was presented at a National Seminar held at the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences (FMIPA) of Tanjungpura University, Pontianak, West Kalimantan, on March 10. In the presentation entitled "Early Detection and Prediction of Borneo Vertex and Air Pollution Over Kalimantan", Erma showed annual global temperature data that has continued to be above its natural climate variability since 1980.  

Most recently, satellite data and reanalysis recorded that the rise of global temperatures in September 2023 had reached 1.76 degrees Celsius - the highest since the pre-Industrial Revolution. This is a decade faster than the initial projections of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) modeling, which predicted a 1.5-degree Celsius rise in temperature by December 2034. 

This condition is considered alarming. Global warming of just 1.5 degrees Celsius could expose as much as 14 percent of the world's population to extreme heat at least once every five years. In the end, global warming will trigger the loss of several important species, shrinking agricultural land, and decreasing marine and fisheries productivity. The earth also become hotter, Erna said, triggering varied disasters and climate problems in various countries, including Indonesia.

Studies show that the temperature and air in some areas of Kalimantan are getting drier in the 1991-2020 period, especially in Central Kalimantan and South Kalimantan. The drying of temperature and air is predicted to extend to West Kalimantan and East Kalimantan in 2021-2050.

Worryingly, data on daily rainfall also shows that the series of days without rain in Kalimantan is also getting longer in the 1991-2020 period. Some areas in East Kalimantan could go 20 to 60 days without rain. The Drought Hazard Index (DHI) in most areas of Kalimantan, including East Kalimantan, is also at moderate, high, and very high levels. 

Extreme drought potentially occur in East Kalimantan, where IKN is located, in the long term or 2050, as well as short term by 2033. 

"This must be considered, in the context of climate change, East Kalimantan tends to experience drought in terms of air and temperature," said Erma. "The risk of losing water supply in the region is high." 

Erma recommends making policies to limit the opening of large agricultural land, and limit coal mining licenses that can trigger an increase in hotspots. "To keep the rate of carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere under control," Erma wrote in her presentation document. 

ALIF ILHAM FAJRIADI

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