TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Joko Widodo should have more self-confidence as he prepares to run for a second presidential term. Several polls have indicated that he has a very good chance of reelection. The electability of the former governor of Jakarta is not yet beyond doubt because his rating is still below 50 percent; but he is in a much stronger position than Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was one year before he won his second term.
One year before the presidential election, to be held in April 2019, at the same time as the voting for members of the legislative bodies, Jokowi is a long way ahead of his nearest rival, Prabowo Subianto. Given that the vote shares of the parties in the 2014 elections will be used to determine who can run for the presidency, there is only a very small chance that a strong alternative will emerge. Moreover, if the votes of all the undecided voters were shared between the two men, Jokowi would likely come out on top.
Public satisfaction with the performance of President Jokowi and Vice President Jusuf Kallas administration is also fairly high at around 70 percent. The public clearly judges the government's infrastructure projects a success. Despite the problems including unclear funding and a series of workplace accidents the construction of these public facilities during the Jokowi era has indeed shown progress.
On top of that, Jokowi now controls a majority of the political power in the House of Representatives (DPR). After more than three-and-a-half years in office, he has managed to consolidate the parties, including those that did not support him in 2014, such as the Golkar Party and the National Mandate Party (PAN). Jokowi is now more than just an Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) party hack, he is the controlling shareholder of some of the main parties supporting him. For next years election, at least five parties have once again adopted him as their presidential candidate the PDI-P, Golkar Party, National Democrat (NasDem) Party, United Development Party (PPP) and the Hanura Party. He holds a very strong bargaining position going into next years presidential election, including in picking his running mate.
Unless something extraordinary and out of his control happens to say, a major economic crisis or being involved in corruption he will probably win. Attempts to erode his support by spreading accusations, for instance connecting him with the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI), is almost certainly doomed to failure. According to a poll carried out by Poltracking Indonesia, the successful candidate in the 2019 elections will be a man of the people, who is honest and has integrity, and is authoritative characteristics generally associated with Jokowi.
Some believe that the strong support for Jokowi could slip away as a result of racist campaigning of the type that scuppered Basuki Tjahaja Purnama in last years gubernatorial vote in Jakarta. But there is not much basis for this view because Jokowi is not burdened by a ¡®triple minority status the term often used by Basuki about himself: adherent of a minority religion, hailing from an ethnic minority, and enjoying no party-political support. Meanwhile, neither does Jokowi communicate like Basuki, who tended to shoot his mouth off and was highly prone to blunders.
Thus Jokowi has the unique advantage of being free to choose his running mate. He can choose the best person for the job, somebody who has a proven track record and the capacity to help him tackle problems over the next five years. He could reflect on the success of Yudhoyono when strengthening his electability in 2009 by choosing Bank Indonesia governor Boediono as his running mate, in order to beat his rivals, party leaders Megawati Sukarnoputri-Prabowo and Jusuf Kalla-Wiranto.
Jokowi should not fall into the trap of sectarian concern. Given his clear 2014 defeats in three provincesWest Sumatra, West Java and West Nusa TenggaraJokowi is now reportedly trying to secure victories there. The main reason for his losses was the view that he did not represent Muslim voters in those three provinces. In selecting his 2019 running mate, Jokowi is reportedly considering a candidate who will be able to pump up his share of the Muslim vote. This kind of identity politics will be a step backward for democracy.
Of course, Jokowi is entitled to choose a running mate who will have the potential to run in the 2024 presidential election, but this desire should be based on the guarantee of continuing development, not on political security after his term ends.
In recent days, we have seen strenuous efforts by potential running mates to win Jokowis heart. At the same time, these days we are also seeing Jokowi battling with himself.
Read the full article in this week's edition of Tempo English Magazine
