Perhaps this is what Joyoboyo meant by his prediction of a topsy-turvy era: individuals, so desperate to become president, that they have their political parties nominate them and their ads continuously aired on television screens. Yet, they have not managed to capture the people's hearts. On the other hand, there is one man who insists he has never considered running for president, but whom the public believes should lead the nation.
We may well ignore Joyoboyo's prediction, but the facts show that Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo, is way ahead of other presidential candidates in opinion polls, even though he says he has "never even thought about" the job. "Resolving traffic jams, floods, dredging reservoirs, sorting out street vendors and administering Jakarta is difficult enough," said Jokowi, as Joko Widodo is popularly known. "The PDI-P (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) or Bu Mega are the people to ask about politics."
During the PDI-P national convention last week in Ancol, Jokowi was clearly the prima donna. Party members from several regions asked the PDI-P to nominate him for president. When Megawati delivered her keynote speech, applause broke out every time his name was mentioned. And when she described how she felt her father's vibes from Jokowi, she seemed to be answering her followers' hopes.
Mega's signal is all too clear. As PDI-P chairperson she has the mandate, and only she can nominate their presidential candidate. Mega, it seems, has begun to consider the advice of her late husband, Taufiq Kiemas, who asked her not to run in the elections again. The indication that Mega no longer plans to nominate herself has given PDI-P cadres the courage to mention the name of someone unrelated to the Bung Karno family. Members had previously been 'fearful of and obedient to' Mega on the issue of a presidential nomination.
Party members must wait a little longer for any decision, however. The recent national convention seemed to be in no rush to name a candidate. The criteria to take part in the elections seemed to have been created especially to fit Jokowi: he or she must be a Javanese, a Muslim and must have had experience as a provincial leader. Although there are candidates other than Jokowi who meet these criteria, they have failed to 'make an impression'.
Keeping Jokowi on hold is a strategy. The election is still 10 months away, and Jokowi could become a target if the convention had nominated him. There are many ways to strike. Firstly Jokowi has been consistent in saying he had 'not considered' running. If the convention had nominated him, and had he accepted, he would have been highly vulnerable to the charge as stated by a Gerindra party politician of being inconsistent and greedy for power.
Secondly, there could be procedural interference of the type already referred to by the Jakarta Provincial House of Representatives (DPRD). For Jokowi to become a presidential candidate, he needs the approval of the DPRD. Then there is the problem of 'non-deliverables' since he has only governed Jakarta for a short time. His political opponents can sabotage his programs, providing a reason to say he had failed.
He may well defend himself by saying that he had "not thought about" running for the presidency, but that the party asked him to and the people want him to. His achievements? He could point to his success in resolving the Pluit Reservoir and Tanah Abang conflicts, as well as with the controversial program to tender out administrative positions. Then there is his support of pluralism, shown by his retention of Susan, the non-Muslim district chief in Lenteng Agung, despite protests from some Muslim groups.
This defense is sure to sap his energy, so it is understandable if the PDI-P keeps Jokowi's name off the board for the time being. By not nominating him now, yet allowing party members to speak of him as a definite possibility, seems to be the strategy adopted by Mega and senior PDI-P members in order to win the legislative elections. They are convinced that their plan to 'sell Jokowi' will win enough seats to enable the party to nominate its own presidential candidate.
With this strategy, people who have not voted for the PDI-P so far, but who admire Jokowi, will switch to this party in the legislative elections. Recent history has told us that during presidential elections and those for governors and regents people make their decision based on the candidates, not their economic platform. The many 'Jokowi My President' movements in several cities prove Jokowi's popularity has gone beyond the PDI-P.
Problems will arise if the PDI-P fails to win enough votes to propose its own candidate. The coalition could run into difficulties if the PDI-P's partners force it to accept a vice-presidential candidate from another party. Ideally, Jokowi would be paired with a professional having an international outlook; a person who would make up for his lack of experience on economic issues and international diplomacy. Jokowi's running mate will depend, once again, on Mega. The question is whether she will accept the fact that there may be no Sukarno descendant in office if the PDI-P takes over power. (*)
