La Nina Expected Around September, BRIN Forecasts Damp Dry Season in Indonesia

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere at the National Innovation Research Agency (BRIN) stated that most weather prediction models indicate the appearance of La Nina in September.

"October-November reached a peak of close to minus 1.5, suggesting a weaker La Nina this year,” said BRIN Principal Expert Researcher Eddy Hermawan on Thursday, June 27.

He cited data released by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on June 24, and the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). According to Eddy, La Nina occurs if the anomaly value in the Pacific Ocean is below minus one (-1). "No chance of La Nina surpassing minus one in June and July as it’s still in the neutral phase," he said.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs when the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are higher than normal in a neutral phase from August to October 2024. Opposing El Nino, La Nina will emerge gradually this year, approaching eastern Indonesia around October or November.

There have been no signs of La Nina thus far, and the dry season will proceed as normal in June, July, and August with Java’s peak season in August or September. The transition period to La Nina is expected to last from July to September. “In October, the transition period will shift into La Nina,” he said.

The probability of La Nina in July to August is 65 percent and rises to 75 percent in September. The weather will turn to normal around October or November, while the Asian monsoon will come to sweep in with rain at the same time. 

As a result, La Nina will dampen drought-stricken regions in Indonesia this year, with most of the impact felt in western parts of Indonesia. "The rainy season will arrive faster this year so the dry season won't be too long," he added. 

ANWAR SISWADI

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