Netanyahu Says Israel Acting Against Iran, will Defend Itself
Editor
5 April 2024 08:00 WIB
CAUTIOUS IRAN?
Until now, Iran has avoided directly entering the fray, while supporting allies' attacks on Israeli and U.S. targets.
The Islamic Republic has several options. It could unleash its heavily armed proxies in Syria and Iraq on U.S. forces, use Hezbollah to hit Israel directly or ramp up its uranium enrichment program. That would raise concern among the United States and its allies about Tehran's potential to make a nuclear bomb, which the West has long sought to curb.
But many diplomats and analysts say Iran's clerical elite does not want an all-out war with Israel or the U.S. that might endanger its grip on power and would prefer to keep using proxies to carry out selective tactical attacks on its foes.
Such proxy strikes on U.S. forces in the region ceased in February after Washington retaliated for the killing of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan with dozens of air strikes on targets in Syria and Iraq linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps and militias it supports.
U.S. officials said at midweek they had not yet picked up intelligence suggesting Iran-backed groups were looking to target U.S. troops following Monday's attack.
While mindful that Israeli strikes on regional adversaries can put U.S. soldiers at risk of retaliation, U.S. officials are sympathetic to Israel's desire to restore deterrence after Oct. 7 and to stop flows of arms and fighters that may threaten it.
One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was a growing concern Iran would make good on its threats to retaliate, raising the risk of volatile, regional escalation.
Iranian leaders have publicly indicated that Iran, which has deep-seated economic problems wrought in part by U.S. sanctions and took months to put down recent popular unrest, does not want a big war that could destabilize the country.
Amos Yadlin, a former Israeli intelligence chief, said Iran might choose Friday - the last in the Holy Muslim month of Ramadan and Iranian Quds (Jerusalem) Day - to respond to the Damascus strike, either directly or through a proxy.
"I will not be surprised if Iran will act tomorrow. Don't panic. Don't run to the shelters," said Yadlin, now at the Kennedy School's Belfer Center at Harvard University, citing Israel's aerial defense systems.
"Be tuned for tomorrow and then, depending on the consequences of the attack, it may escalate."
REUTERS
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