BIN Simulation Predicts Coronavirus Epidemic to Peak in Ramadan

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - State Intelligence Agency (BIN) deputy V, Afini Boer, said that the agency has mathematically predicted when the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic will hit its peak in Indonesia. The agency claims it will take place 60-80 days after it was first announced on March 2. 

BIN’s model of calculation places the coronavirus epidemic peak in May, which coincides with Ramadan; the month of fasting for Muslims. 

“Relying on this model of calculation, the peak moment will likely fall in May. [During] the month of fasting,” said Afini in a discussion held at Kebayoran Baru in South Jakarta today, March 13.

Afini explained that the simulation was done by calculating the number of people believed to be infected, or known as suspected coronavirus cases, the patients who have recovered, and tracking down their mobility. 

“Based on this mathematical calculation that oversees variables such as suspected infections and recoveries, the model shows that it will enter its peak within 60 - 80 days,” said Afini. 

The BIN deputy explained that the simulation refers to the coronavirus spread in other countries such as China, which he claims have hit its epidemic peak within 60 days. Whereas Britain predicts that its peak epidemic will happen in 130 days according to a different calculation. 

Another challenge BIN faces, he said, is the possibility of a super spreader where one person is able to spread the virus to multiple individuals. This, he says, happened in South Korea and Italy. 

BUDIARTI UTAMI PUTRI