TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - It is regrettable that the 'winner' of last week's legislative elections was the same as in the previous two elections: the golput, or non-voters. An estimated more than 30 percent of voters failed to exercise their right to vote the highest ever figure in Indonesian elections. The golput vote even exceeded those of the winning Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which garnered 19 percent, according to the quick count. It is almost certain that none of the contesting parties got the 25 percent votes required to field candidates in the presidential race on July 9.
PDI-P is still holding out some hope of nominating its own candidate. With 19 percent of the vote, PDI-P is expected to acquire 105-116 seats in the House of Representatives (DPR). Only if it wins 112 seats (20 percent) will the party be able to nominate its own presidential nominee without having to ally itself with other parties.
To be sure, it is very risky to pin all hopes on merely the number of seats. Even if PDI-P manages to win 20 percent of the seats and manages to field its own candidate, the party led by Megawati Soekarnoputri would still need to seek additional support in the legislature. It would be difficult to implement a government program if 80 percent of the seats were in the hands of its political opponents.
This would be exactly the opposite of what happened to the Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono administration. The coalition led by the Democrat Party since 2009 in practice controlled more than 75 percent of DPR seats a majority, but coalition members did not always come through with the unanimous support when the government needed it.
The Yudhoyono coalition was formed not because of shared ideas, but because of short-term interests. Ideally, a coalition should be established before the legislative election, so that unity can be established based on ideas and goals, not through a sharing of cabinet posts. But this will not happen. The vice-presidential position, seats in the cabinet and other important positions are the main item of the political agenda. Programs to eradicate corruption or uphold human rights will be nothing more than talk. It seems that the Rp16-trillion election, including the two rounds of the presidential vote, will once again produce a government that is held hostage to power sharing, merely to meet the presidential nomination threshold.
The three parties with the largest share of the vote PDI-P, Golkar and Gerindra have a reasonable chance to nominate a president. They will compete for the support of other parties. This means the PDI-P's presidential candidate, Joko Widodo, is almost certain to run against Aburizal Bakrie and Prabowo Subianto in the contest to replace Yudhoyono, who must step down after serving two terms. So far, Jokowi looks certain to win, at least according to opinion polls.
Given Jokowi's electability, whoever wants to win will have to prevent the Jakarta governor from running. One way to do this would be to 'dissuade' parties outside Golkar and Gerindra not to enter into a coalition with PDI-P, by offering them all kinds of incentives, including concessions and even money. The financial might of Aburizal Bakrie and Prabowo Subianto cannot be underestimated when it comes to creating seemingly illogical conditions that could lead them to succeed in their political objectives.
Let us hope that the political tragedy of the 1999 presidential election will not be repeated. At that time, the PDI-P won 35 percent of the votes, the largest share, but it had to concede the presidency to Abdurrahman Wahid from the National Awakening Party (PKB), which only won 12 percent of the votes. In that election, held by the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) led by Amien Rais, Megawati had to be content with the vice-presidency.
Therefore, if the PDI-P wants to gain mileage from its recent legislative election victory, it must no longer act hesitantly. With Jokowi's popularity, it should not have waited too long before declaring him its candidate. There were also divisions within the campaign team, as well as a trivial 'family drama' that could have been avoided.
Without a change of strategy, or until it eliminates its arrogance of waiting for other parties to come courting, the PDI-P's course will not be an easy one. Megawati holds the mandate from her party to name the presidential candidate, but it would be better if that candidate were allowed to choose his running mate, or even to play a significant role in forming a coalition.
When the coalitions are formed, each presidential candidate should announce their plans for their cabinet lineup. The people need to know if the coalitions really have the capacity to make Indonesia better, or whether they are no more than the result of horse trading. (*)
Read the full story in this week's edition of Tempo English Magazine
