HSBC's 2026 Outlook: Indonesia's Stock Market Strengthens as Rupiah Weakens
Reporter
January 12, 2026 | 05:30 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - HSBC Global Research projects that the Indonesia Composite Index (IHSG) could strengthen to 9,700 this year. Equity Strategy Asia Pacific HSBC Global Research's Head, Herald van der Linde, stated that the exposure to stock portfolios in Indonesia is still relatively low. On the other hand, the Indonesian stock market offers low valuations.
"Indonesia offers recovery in growth and income cycles, as well as low valuations, at a time when people are seeking exposure in emerging markets," said Herald during a virtual media briefing on Monday, January 12, 2026.
In the last week's trading, IHSG closed at 8,936.7. Meanwhile, this morning, IHSG opened at 8,991.76.
On the other hand, Chief Indonesia and India Economist at HSBC Global Research, Pranjul Bhandari, believes that the foreign capital inflow into Indonesia is not yet strong enough. This weak influx occurs in both the stock market, bond market, and foreign direct investment.
According to Pranjul, The rupiah exchange rate could fall further this year. The rupiah exchange rate at the close of today's trading weakened to Rp16,855 per U.S. dollar. "By the end of this year, the rupiah exchange rate could reach Rp17,000 per U.S. dollar," she said.
In the 2026 State Budget macro assumptions, the government targets the rupiah's value at Rp16,500 per U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa is optimistic that IHSG could reach 10,000 this year.
Purbaya believes that the rise will be accelerated by the government's increasingly synchronous policies and better economic prospects. "Next year (IHSG) 10,000? Oh, more. By the end of next year, it will be more than 10,000," he said to the media at the Ministry of Finance office, Jakarta, December 31, 2025.
Ilona Estherina contributed to this article
Read: IHSG Needs Solid Economic Fundamentals to Break 10,000
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