Oil Rebounds on Middle East Tensions But China Data Caps Gains

TEMPO.CO, Bengaluru - Oil futures rebounded more than $1 a barrel from 7-week lows on Wednesday, July 31, after the killing of a Hamas leader in Iran ratcheted up tensions in the Middle East, but prices remain under pressure from concerns about weak China demand.

Brent crude futures climbed $1.50, or 1.91%, to $80.13 a barrel by 0828 GMT ahead of expiry on Wednesday, while the more active October contract was at $79.55, up $1.48.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.54, or 2.06%, to $76.27 a barrel.

A day earlier Brent and WTI both fell about 1.4%, closing at their lowest levels in seven weeks.

Tension in the Middle East heated up on news that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran.

This came a day after the Israeli government claimed it killed Hezbollah's most senior commander in an airstrike on Beirut in retaliation for Saturday's rocket attack on Israel.

Separately, the United States also conducted a strike in Iraq in the latest conflict in the region.

"Overnight developments and elevated geopolitical risk merely provide temporary reprieve for oil benchmarks. Unless oil and gas infrastructure is hit, the latest spike is unlikely to last," said Gaurav Sharma, an independent oil analyst in London.

Still, Brent and WTI are on track in July to post their biggest monthly loss since October 2023 on lingering concerns about China's demand outlook and expectations that OPEC+ will stick to their current deal on production and start unwinding some output cuts from October.

Port closures there could temporarily halt crude and liquefied natural gas exports, oil shipments to refineries and gasoline deliveries.

Top ministers from OPEC+, will hold an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) on Thursday.

Slowing fuel demand in China, the world's largest crude oil importer is also weighing on oil markets.

China's manufacturing activity in July shrank for a third month, an official factory survey showed on Wednesday.

"Concerns about Chinese demand remain elevated as today's PMIs declined, with the manufacturing sector further contracting. This suggests that any additional gains due to intensifying tensions in the Middle East may remain limited and short-lived," said Charalampos Pissouros, senior investment analyst at brokerage XM.

In the U.S., crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories fell last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Data from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT (14:30 GMT) on Wednesday.

Crude inventories are expected to have fallen by 1.1 million barrels in the week to July 26, forecasts from 10 analysts polled by Reuters showed.

REUTERS

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