BMKG Says 2024 Dry Season 'Delayed, Wetter Than Average' in Some Parts of Indonesia

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Head of the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Dwikorita Karnawati predicted that the start of the dry season in most parts of Indonesia this year will be delayed compared to previous years. The peak of the dry season in 2024 is predicted to remain in July and August. 

"When compared to the climatological average (1991-2020 period), the beginning of the 2024 dry season in Indonesia will be delayed in 282 season zones (40 percent), unchanged in 175 season zones (25 percent), and advance in 105 season zones (15 percent)," Dwikorita said in a press conference on Friday, March 15, 2024.

Dwikorita detailed the areas where the beginning of the dry season is predicted to be delayed, namely parts of North Sumatra, parts of Riau, Lampung, Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Yogyakarta, and East Java. Also most of Kalimantan, parts of Bali, NTB, parts of NTT, parts of Southeast Sulawesi, parts of West Sulawesi, most of Central Sulawesi, Gorontalo, parts of Central Sulawesi, and parts of Maluku.

He added that compared to the climatological average, the 2024 dry season is predicted to be normal in 359 season zones (51.36 percent), above normal in 279 season zones (39.91 percent), and 61 season zones will have drier than average season (8.73 percent). 

Among the areas predicted to experience a below-normal dry season are parts of East Java, parts of West Kalimantan, parts of South Sulawesi, parts of Southeast Sulawesi, parts of Central Sulawesi, parts of NTT, North Maluku, parts of West Papua, Central Papua, and South Papua.

Areas that are predicted to experience an above-normal dry season include Bengkulu, South Sumatra, Lampung, most of Java, Bali, NTB, parts of Central Kalimantan, parts of South Kalimantan, parts of East Kalimantan, West Sulawesi, northern parts of Gorontalo and North Sulawesi, parts of Maluku, parts of West Papua and most of South Papua.

Meanwhile, most of Indonesia, namely 317 season zones (45.61 percent) will experience the peak of the dry season in August 2024. This includes parts of South Sumatra, East Java, most of Kalimantan Island, Bali, NTB, NTT, most of Sulawesi Island, Maluku, and most of Papua Island.

"However, there are some areas that experience the peak of the dry season in July with 217 season zones (31.22 percent) and September 2024 with 68 season zones (9.78 percent)," Dwikorita said. 

La Nina replacing El Nino

In relation to weather phenomenon, El Nino is predicted to go neutral in the May to July period which will potentially turn into a weak La Nina. Sea surface temperatures in Indonesia are predicted to be warmer than normal by 0.5 to 2.0 degrees Celsius.

Dwikorita urged the government, and the general public to prepare for the dry season, especially those in areas with below-normal seasons. These areas are exposed to higher risks of drought, wildfires, and lack of water. 

IRSYAN HASYIM

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