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Expert Says Future of Oil and Gas Industry Gloomy

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16 May 2017 16:04 WIB

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - ReforMinier Institute researcher Pri Agung Rakhanto suggested the government conduct oil and gas exploration activities, as he projected that the Indonesian oil and gas upstream industry would decline in the future.

“The primary/secondary oil reserves that can be lifted are only 30 percent. The rest must be taken using an advanced technology, and it would be costly. But it must be done,” Pri Agung said in a discussion held at Chevron in Jakarta on Tuesday, May 16, 2017.

Based on data shown in Annex I of Presidential Regulation No. 22/2017 on the national energy general plan, Indonesia still has approximately 151 billion barrels of oil, assuming that there will be no new reserves found for the next 12 years. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s oil productivity has reached 288 million barrels.

In addition, with an assumption that no findings of natural gas reserves, Indonesia’s natural gas reserves that stand at 487 trillion cubic feet (TCF) would last only for 33 years. Of 98.0 TCF of natural gas reserves, only 3.0 TCF have been produced. Coal reserves that stand at 120.5 billion tons will last for 82 years.

Therefore, Pri Agung suggested that the potential resources must be immediately turned into reserves through exploration activities.

However, he pointed out that Indonesia is currently not in the position to take risks in terms of exploration, due to lack of capital necessary to conduct exploration activities.

The cost to explore an onshore well is predicted to amount at least US$100 million. Meanwhile, Indonesia only counts state-owned oil and gas company Pertamina to increase the reserves.

“Therefore, the government must be investor-friendly. Spending capital is necessary to achieve prosperity,” Pri Agung suggested.

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