Rupiah's Recovery Will Take a Long Time  

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Rupiah’s recovery from depreciation may take longer than other currencies in Southeast Asia because, according to a number of analysts, the underlying causes are much more difficult to deal with.

Lana Soelistianingsih, an economist from the University of Indonesia, said the rupiah weakened against the US dollar because of excessive imports, high interest payments on foreign debts and the declining exports.

“Indonesia is also hampered by an external issue, which is the tapering-off by the US central bank,” Lana said when contacted yesterday. Moreover, Indonesia’s current account deficit is worse than other Asian countries.

Lana predicted that it will be difficult for the rupiah to recover below Rp11,800 per US dollar next year. Bank Indonesia noted a mid-rate of Rp12,104 yesterday.

In the course of 2013, rupiah’s performance was the worst compared to the other seven Southeast Asian currencies—falling 24.55 percent against the US dollar. The money market analyst of PT Monex Investindo Futures, Zulfirman Basir, said that “as long as the current account shows a deficit, the rupiah will continue to face pressure.”

Zulfirman agrees with an earlier forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the current account deficit will continue to the first quarter of 2014. Meanwhile, the chief economist of Bank Internasional Indonesia (BII), Juniman, expects the rupiah to trade around Rp12,100 per US dollar and to weaken even further in 2014. “It’s not impossible for the rupiah to breach even Rp13,000 per US dollar if there’s no significant intervention by Bank Indonesia,” he said.

The Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Hatta Rajasa, implores the market not to panic. He claims Bank Indonesia will still intervene. Last November, BI prepared US$6.3 billion for intervention, which has increased to US$7.3 billion this month.

MAYA NAWANGWULAN | FAIZ NASHRILLAH | M. AZHAR | MEGEL JEKSON | RR. ARIYANI