TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Lucky Bayu Purnomo, a money market analyst from LBP Enterprise, said that the rupiah exchange rate is currently lower than its fundamental value. According to his calculations, the rupiah's fundamental value is at 12,900 per US dollar, yet it closed yesterday's trade at Rp13,334.
He said that although closing rate was around 13,300 per US dollar, the market transact using a rate of between Rp13,500 and Rp13,600 per dollar.
"The rupiah is still prone [to further correction] as long as it has not returned to the Rp13,000-per-dollar threshold," he said yesterday.
The rupiah will be corrected further by Greece's financial crisis after the IMF gave the Greeks a dollar-denominated loan. When Greece defaults, the greenback will skyrocket and triumph against all other currencies. "It will severly affect the rupiah," he said.
Lucky said that Bank Indonesia's appeal to use rupiah in every transaction is a signal of a growing fear that the rupiah will plummet deeper. He said the policy has little to no effect considering 52 percent of domestic transactions are denominated in US dollars anyway.
BI's senior deputy governor Mirza Adityaswara said that based on the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) measurement, the rupiah had indeed fallen below its fundamental value.
But he said that BI's intervention is not a way to reach a certain exchange rate value, but to minimize the rupiah volatility to prevent major impacts on inflation.
TRI ARTINING PUTRI | PRAGA UTAMA