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Expect Volatile Bond Market Next Year, Analyst Says

22 December 2014 09:24 WIB

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Next year's bond market is projected to fluctuate following the ups and downs of bond prices affected by internal and external factors.

Domestically, BNI Securities analyst I Made Adi Saputra said, bond price movements in the secondary market will be overshadowed by inflation due to rising fuel prices. "However, front-loading strategies will push up the yields on government bonds in the first half of next year," he said in Jakarta last week.

Meanwhile, global investors are expected to focus their attention to The Fed's and the European Central Bank's (ECB) policies. The Fed's plan to raise interest rates is expected to affect the yield of the US treasury bonds, which also tends to rise.

However, Made is optimistic that the domestic debt market has several strengths such as attractive yields and high liquidity in the secondary market. "Visible weaknesses are the dominance of foreign investors as well as the lack of market penetration," he said.

According to Made, next year's bond issuance value is targeted at Rp431 trillion (gross), which is slightly higher from this year's Rp428.18 trillion (gross). The government, he said, will prioritize the issuance of bonds denominated in foreign currencies at the beginning of the year, in anticipation of the Fed's policy normalization.

For corporate bonds, Made expects that next year's yield value will remain attractive. The value of corporate bonds maturing in 2015 is around Rp33.74 trillion, lower than 2014's Rp38,78 trillion.

"The multi-finance industry will still dominate the issuance of orporate bonds next year, followed by banking institutions," he predicted.

Handy Yunianto, head of fixed income research at PT Mandiri Sekuritas, projected the bond yield for December next year will not change much. According to Handy, the bond market will only see increasing yields for bonds with 10 and 20-year tenors, projected to increase to 8.3 and 9 percent, respectively, from today's 8.2 and 8.9 percent.

"But basically, the domestic bond market is still quite low compared to other ASEAN countries," he said. 

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