TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Lana Soelistianingsih, an economist at Samuel Asset Management, said the economic growth target of 5.4 percent in the second half would be difficult to achieve. According to Lana, the average economic growth over the last two quarters at 5.16 percent was less than the expected figure at 5.5 percent.
“Achieving the second half’s [economic growth] target is already difficult, let alone achieving the full year target of 5.6 percent,” Lana said on Tuesday, October 7, 2014.
Lana revealed that the most realistic economic growth in the second semester of this year would be 5.2 percent.
The World Bank predicted that Indonesia would find it difficult to compete with other South East Asian countries since the country still relies on exports of commodities. This year, Indonesia’s economic growth is projected to be at 5.2 percent, lower than last year’s figure of 5.8 percent.
The slowdown, Lana said, was caused by the consolidation process that is still ongoing since last year’s crisis. The impact of Bank Indonesia’s reference rate hike in November had only seen six months later. In addition, the export value was lower than expected.
“Government’s spending was not as well as expected due to transition period,” Lana said.
Another cause was the late approval of the Revised State Budget in June 2014, causing the budget realization could be performed in September.