Indonesia Predicts Peak of Omicron BA.4, BA.5 Next Month

27 June 2022 07:35 WIB

Illustration of Omicron

TEMPO.CO, JakartaHealth Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin predicted that the peak of the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 waves in Indonesia will occur next month, or to be precise in the second or third week of July 2022. The prediction was based on observations of what had happened in South Africa.

“If [we have the same] pattern as in South Africa, the estimated peak [in Indonesia] could be in the second and third week of July 2022,” said Budi at JICT Tanjung Priok, North Jakarta, Sunday, June 26, 2022.

South Africa, according to him, is the country of origin for the emergence of the two Omicron subvariants which are currently spreading rapidly in the world. However, Budi added, the case surge in South Africa in the past month was only a third of the case hike during the peak of its initial subvariant, Omicron BA.1.

Besides, he repeatedly emphasized that the hospitalization rate caused by the new subvariants was also only a third of the peak of the original subvariant. “The death rate is about 10 percent of the Omicron peak.”

At the peak of Omicron BA.4 and BA.5, the case number might reach 30 percent of the Omicron peak or about 17,000-18,000. After that, the case number will plummet again. “Yet the number of patients admitted to hospital and deaths is much lower than the previous wave,” the minister added.

The COVID-19 Handling Task Force reported on Sunday, June 26, that there were 1,726 new infections. On Friday, the new daily case number passed 2,000. The daily hike in new cases skyrocketed from 200 to 2,000 within just a few weeks.

Budi also said Indonesia remains at level 1 of the public mobility restrictions or PPKM based on the WHO standard. Indonesia’s reproduction rate of the virus is still under control at below one percent. Likewise, the national positivity rate is at 3.61 percent, below the WHO standard of 5 percent.

However, the COVID-19 positivity rate in a number of provinces, including Jakarta and Banten, is already above 5 percent. Thus, Budi encouraged the public to stay vigilant and not panic in facing the current pandemic situation.

ANTARA

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