April Inflation Predicted to Rise 3% due to Eid

Translator

Ririe Ranggasari

5 May 2022 19:20 WIB

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Some economists expect the inflation rate in April 2022 to exceed 3 percent, year-on-year. The inflation rate is influenced by factors such as the period ahead of Eid.

Bank Central Asia (IDX: BBCA) economist David Sumual predicts April's inflation will reach 3.46 percent (yoy). He said that the price increase was influenced by seasonal factors such as the period leading up to Idul Fitri, especially the food, transportation, and commodity price hikes.

"Moreover, there's the lockdown in China, maybe the expectation [of the effect on inflation] is not right now," David told Bisnis on Thursday, May 5.

He said that in the near future the China lockdown sentiment will have an effect on the Indonesian economy. That is because the distribution of supply of goods, raw materials, materials, including consumer goods is hampered. The lockdown effect will at least be felt in Indonesia by the second half of 2022.

For the entire year of 2022, David estimates the inflation rate will reach more than 4 percent. He pointed to several triggering factors, including price increases set by the government, such as for the price of 3-kg LPG, electricity tariffs, toll rates and the price of Pertalite gasoline.

"But whether the inflation would go higher depends on the prices set by the government; whether there will be adjustments or not in the second half of 2022," he said.

Similarly, Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede stated that April's inflation hike was influenced by all components, including core inflation, volatile food prices, and administered prices. The price inflation fluctuates along with the rising prices of food items, especially during Ramadan and ahead of Eid.

"The year-on-year core inflation in April is also expected to increase by 2.6 percent from the previous month's 2.37 percent; in line with the increase in domestic consumption during Ramadan. In addition, the VAT hike will also be a contributing factor to the inflation hike in April," he told Bisnis on Thursday.

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