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Epidemiologist Talks About Omicron Spread and Natural Antibodies

7 December 2021 10:05 WIB

Illustration of the Omicron variant of Covid-19. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic

TEMPO.CO, JakartaEpidemiologist from Sebelas Maret University (UNS) Tonang Dwi Ardyanto on Tuesday believes the new covid-19 variant Omicron had already spread in Indonesia for the past two weeks.

Despite acknowledging the lack of accurate data to back this claim, he highlighted the possibility of this scenario as those exposed to the new variant will only show mild-to-no symptoms, which is likely to end up unreported. 

“It is estimated that the prevalence of antibodies—from natural infections, vaccinations and infection-vaccination hybrids—is already relatively high after last July,” said the epidemiologist in a Whatsapp group chat on December 7.

According to Tonang, being disciplined with 5M health protocols (wearing masks, washing hands, maintaining distance, avoiding crowds, and reducing mobility), can help against an Omicron spread. 

Antibodies from the natural infection in July showed signs of decreasing and the likely omicron spread is hoped to spark higher antibodies. "Thus, my educated guess is that Omicron already exists, it has started to spread in Indonesia," he said.

Then why hasn't it been identified? Tonang, who is also a clinical pathologist, explained that firstly, because the majority of cases have no or only mild symptoms and secondly, the number of PCR tests in Indonesia is still below the threshold.

The average test reported is between 180,000-200,000 per day, but most of them are antigen tests, now PCR is only about 15 percent of the total tests. The average is around 30,000/day, whereas the minimum is 39,000/day. 

"That's a minimum, also on equal terms. Unfortunately, 40-50 percent of the PCR is in Jakarta alone. The rest is divided by 33 other provinces,” said the epidemiologist.

Read: Australia Omicron Variant Spreads, Testing Reopening Plans

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