BMKG Simulation Model: 29-meter Tsunami Threatens East Java

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Markus Wisnu Murti

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  • The devastation caused by a 6.1-magnitude earthquake in Lumajang, Saturday, April 10, 2021. Three people are dead and a number of houses in seven districts in Lumajang regency are heavily damaged due to the disaster. The Meteorology, CIimatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) says the epicenter is located at sea, 90 kilometers southwest of Malang, East Java.

    The devastation caused by a 6.1-magnitude earthquake in Lumajang, Saturday, April 10, 2021. Three people are dead and a number of houses in seven districts in Lumajang regency are heavily damaged due to the disaster. The Meteorology, CIimatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) says the epicenter is located at sea, 90 kilometers southwest of Malang, East Java.

    TEMPO.CO, JakartaThe Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) conducted a tsunami simulation model following a potential earthquake of up to magnitude 9.0 in southern East Java. Agency head Dwikorita Karnawati said the results of the mathematical modeling could be a reference for provincial and local governments to prepare for disaster mitigation.

    “The maximum height of the potential tsunami is up to 26-29 meters in Trenggalek regency, while the fastest arrival time is 20-24 minutes in Blitar regency,” said Dwikorita in a webinar entitled "East Java Earthquake and Tsunami" on Friday, May 28, 2021.

    She explained that the tsunami could reach Trenggalek within 28-31 minutes after the powerful quake. The height is also higher than Blitar's 19-22 meters.

    As for other southern coastal areas in East Java, for example, the potential tsunami is predicted to reach Pacitan within 26-29 minutes at 25-26 meters high, Tulungagung regency within 27-30 minutes at 24-27 meters high, Malang within 21-24 minutes at 17-20 meters high.

    Based on the same modeling results, the tsunami will reach the east coast of Banyuwangi 45-48 minutes after the quake with a height of 4-7 meters and Situbondo within 78-79 minutes at 1-3 meters high.

    The simulation results were more extreme than the study conducted by Bandung Technology Institution (ITB) regarding the same potential disaster in southern East Java, which was issued in September last year. Dwikorita said the BMKG had carried out field verification to deal with the potential disasters.

    According to her, local government officials in East Java are ready to mitigate the disasters. “There are not many BPBD (Regional Disaster Mitigation Agency) in Indonesia that are as ready as East Java. The regents and mayors are also concerned about the issue,” Dwikorita said.

    The BMKG head went on to say that what was left was the evacuation route. “So [regional governments] should set up more adequate evacuation routes, including facilities and infrastructure,” Dwikorita concluded.

    Read: BMKG Announces System Error in Earthquake and Tsunami SMS Alert

    MOH KHORY ALFARIZI