FKM UI Predicts COVID-19 Curve To Flatten in Early 2022



Markus Wisnu Murti

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  • Coronavirus illustration. Shutterstock

    Coronavirus illustration. Shutterstock

    TEMPO.CO, JakartaA team of researchers of University of Indonesia’s Faculty of Public Health (FKM UI) predicted the COVID-19 pandemic curve would begin to flatten in early 2022. Thus, it called on the general public to adjust to the current lifestyle throughout 2021. 

    “The predictive model we studied suggested that the pandemic could only be controlled in late 2021 or early 2022,” said Iwan Ariawan, a member of the COVID-19 modelling research team, in Friday's virtual discussion.

    He explained the research found that if the government managed to adopt the right policy, the pandemic would peak nearing the end of 2020 with an average of 1,800 daily new cases. 

    “This is if we consider that people are strictly following the existing health protocols while at the same time the government commences good contact tracing efforts and isolation attempts,” the researcher said. 

    Through proper policies, the government will likely be able to see the COVID-19 curve flatten starting in early 2021. Meanwhile, the transitional PSBB restriction that is currently applied in Jakarta will likely see 2,500 average cases nearing the end of this year. 

    Read: COVID-19 Victims 5 Times More Likely To Die in Hospital Than Flu Patients