Epidemiologist Responds to COVID-19 Prediction by LSI

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - University of Indonesia (UI) epidemiologist, Syahrizal Syarif, on Thursday gave his opinion about the predictive end to the COVID-19 outbreak released by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) Denny JA, which he argues is still rational. 

“It’s still rational if the prediction suggests June or July,” said Syahrizal to Tempo today, April 30.

The LSI Denny JA previously announced a prediction model implying that cases would decline in June. Syahrizal said that out of the 210 COVID-19-stricken nations worldwide, 80 percent of them are experiencing a controlled decline in cases or are nearing the end of the pandemic. 

A controlled decline means that a country has passed its peak spread and continues to see a declining number of positive cases 7-14 days after the peak of the outbreak. He said that Indonesia and Singapore are those included in the 10 Southeast Asian countries with declining numbers of new COVID-19 cases. 

Assuming that the government is revealing the absolute truth in terms of numbers, Syahrizal argues that the number of new cases has continued to decline in the past several days since the 436 cases recorded on April 24. 

If April 24 can be deemed the peak COVID-19 spread in Indonesia, he said that new positive cases for the next two weeks could continue to decline. However, he asserted the government assumes that the peak coronavirus pandemic will take place at the end of May, to which he argued; “It means 436 is not the peak moment of the pandemic here. The government surely must have their reasons.”

FRISKI RIANA