Singapore Study Offers Prediction when COVID-19 Might End

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Mahinda Arkyasa

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  • TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - A researcher from Singapore University of Technology and Design, Jianxi Luo, predicted in a research report received by Tempo on Monday, April 27, 2020, that the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in Indonesia will subside in early September 2020. 

    The worldwide data-driven research predicts the spread of the pandemic across the globe, which can be accessed at https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/when-will-covid-19-end/ 

    The website provides continuous predictive monitoring of COVID-19 developments as a complement to monitoring confirmed cases. Jianxi Luo also explained the basis of his study in the site: "The SIR [susceptible-infected-recovered] model is regressed with data from different countries to estimate the pandemic life cycle curves and predict when the pandemic might end in respective countries and the world."

    Based on the data on the global spread of the pandemic, the website predicted that 97 percent of COVID-19 cases in the world will subside on May 30, 2020. Luo's study predicts that 99 percent of COVID-19 cases will end on June 17, 2020, and will completely gone by December 9, 2020. 

    Meanwhile, 97 percent of cases in Indonesia are predicted to cease on June 7 and is predicted to completely disappear by September 7, 2020.

    In his report, Jianxi Luo strongly reminds us that predictions are uncertain by nature and that readers must take any predictions with caution. 

    Over-optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may result in lack of discipline and control, and cause a significant increase of COVID-19 infection, and therefore must be avoided.

    EGI ADYATAMA