CDC: 550,000 at Risk of Contracting Ebola in West Africa

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The United States (US) Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has come out with a surprising figure at the end of last week—according to its latest estimates, without further aids and intervention from the global community, around 550,000 are at risk of contracting the deadly Ebola virus. 

The CDC admits this is a worst-case scenario based on current efforts to prevent the spread of the virus, which according to CDC, contains plenty of rooms for improvement. The report of the Atlanta-based public health agency was originally due to be published this week, but the contents of the document was leaked to the public at the end of last week. 

"CDC is working on a dynamic modelling algorithm that allows for recalculations of projected Ebola cases over time," said Barbara Reynolds, a CDC spokesperson. "We plan to release this interactive tool and a description of its use in the very near future." 

However, expert epidemiologists say it is difficult to predict the number of Ebola patients in the future because there are simply too much variables to take into account. "It's like predicting whether it is going to rain or shine tomorrow," said John Connor, an assistant professor of microbiology at Boston University School of Medicine, and a medical investigator for the National Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratories. 

Last month, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said that the epidemic may end up infecting 20,000 people before it could be brought under control. However, expert epidemiologists and a number of international health organizations have said that the numbers can easily exceed WHO predictions, with worst-hit countries—Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone—expected to contribute the most to the total number of reported cases. 

The current Ebola epidemic really took the world by surprise. Previous Ebola epidemic were successfully brought under control simply by placing infected individuals under quarantine. However, as the outbreak shifted to major cities and populated areas, additional measures need to be taken. 

The number of Ebola cases spiked significantly in the past three weeks. As per last week, the United Nations (UN) noted 5,357 reported cases of Ebola in West Africa. Some 2,630 people have died from the deadly hemorrhagic virus since the outbreak began in early 2014. 

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